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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. However, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions declining and recent strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this is not a typical campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of peers.

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